A pilot walks by United Airlines planes at the San Francisco International Airport in April. GETTY IMAGES
United Airlines Holdings Inc. stock (Nasdaq: UAL) fell late Wednesday after the airline reported a 78% drop in quarterly sales as the pandemic continued to crimp air travel.
United said it lost $1.8 billion, or $6.33 a share, in the third quarter, contrasting with earnings of $1 billion, or $3.99 a share, in the year-ago quarter.
FILE PHOTO: Emirates Airline Boeing 777 planes at are seen Dubai International Airport in Dubai
DUBAI (Reuters) – An eight-month crisis over the grounding of Boeing’s 737 MAX jets and widespread industrial delays are setting an unpredictable backdrop to next week’s Dubai Airshow, with some airlines reviewing fleet plans even as others look for bargains.
The biennial civil and military expo is a major showcase for wares from jumbo jets to military drones but faces growing questions over demand and the capability of overstretched suppliers, delegates arriving for the Nov. 17-21 event said.
Top of their agenda will be the worldwide grounding of the 737 MAX in the wake of two deadly crashes.
Investors who have pushed up Boeing <BA> shares believe the planemaker is turning a corner after the eight month grounding, with the company predicting commercial flights in January. But it also faces a logjam of undelivered jets that could take 1-2 years to unwind.
State-owned flydubai expects its fleet will now shrink by a third this year, highlighting the cost of the grounding for the biggest MAX customer outside the United States. “Flydubai has very big ambitions … given the scale of those ambitions, there’s little they can do but wait and watch, like everyone else,” said Teal Group analyst Richard Aboulafia.
Boeing lost one potential MAX customer earlier this year as Saudi budget airline flyadeal ditched a provisional order.
Experts say airline frustrations with plane and engine makers could also disrupt plans by the world’s largest jetmakers pushing for order endorsements. The Middle East’s largest aerospace event will give Airbus <EADSY> and Boeing a chance to sit with some of their top customers who have threatened to walk from billions in deals.
The planemakers are struggling to deliver aircraft on time, forcing airlines to delay expansion plans, while engines on some jets are consistently causing issues for carriers.
“This seems to be a systemic issue across the board,” said Novus Aviation Capital Managing Director Mounir Kuzbari.
“As a result, we see stress on the relationship between airlines and the plane and engine makers.” Dubai’s Emirates, by far the region’s biggest airline, has issued a stern warning to plane and engine makers. It will no longer take delivery of aircraft that do not meet performance expectations, raising doubts over $35 billion in pending orders.
Airbus, Boeing and engine makers will be looking to allay concerns as they finalise jet sales with Emirates, which is also looking at reducing an order for the delayed Boeing 777X.
Airbus is seen close to a final order for A330neo and A350 jets while Boeing aims to salvage a provisional order for 787s.
GULF PRESSURE
Air Arabia could, however, steal the show with a planned order of up to 120 Airbus jets, industry sources say.
Kuwait’s Jazeera Airways is in negotiations with Airbus and Boeing for around two dozen airplanes.
Past editions of Dubai’s premier trade event have featured blockbuster deals, often led by Emirates as Gulf carriers redrew the aviation map around their ‘super-connector’ hubs.
But the Gulf hub model is increasingly under pressure as the once-rapid growth of the region’s biggest airlines slows.
“The market continues to be weak for all airlines in the region; we should see a further 2-3% reduction in passenger numbers for the full year,” said Diogenis Papiomytis, Frost & Sullivan’s Global Program Director for Commercial Aviation.
Middle East military leaders touring the displays will try to gauge whether they are on the cusp of another regional splurge on weapons after an escalation in Gulf tensions.
A series of attacks over the summer has highlighted potential security gaps among some of the world’s top defence spenders who now increasingly buy from China and Russia.
(Reporting by Alexander Cornwell, Tim Hepher, Ankit Ajmera, Stanley Carvalho; Editing by Mark Potter)
– Market faces potential surplus of 1,000 jets next year
– Air Lease CEO less worried about surge in MAX deliveries
– Older aircraft won reprieve during MAX grounding
– Boeing aims to deliver record-matching 70 MAX a mth on return
HONG KONG, Nov 5 (Reuters) – Airlines struggling to cope with the grounding of the 737 MAX could face a markedly different problem when Boeing Co’s best-selling jet is cleared to re-enter service: a switch to concerns about aircraft oversupply, carriers have been warned.
The U.S. planemaker has continued to produce the jet since it was grounded in March after two fatal accidents, and is expected to speed deliveries by 40%, to 70 units a month, when its factory doors reopen, in a bid to clear the backlog.
Rob Morris, global head of consultancy at UK-based Ascend by Cirium, said the combination of any rapid rebound in deliveries, economic worries and an accumulation of market pressures dating back before the crashes could make it hard to absorb the jets.
“Next year is the challenge. When the dam breaks and the MAX starts to flow, there are going to be a lot of aircraft,” Morris told financiers at a Hong Kong briefing late on Monday.
“There could potentially be as many as 1,000 surplus aircraft next year.”
The forecast is based on both a rebound in MAX deliveries and a potential glut of second-hand airplanes flooding back onto the market after standing in for the MAX during the grounding.
The crisis has rekindled demand for older and less efficient jets, with airlines using more than 800 planes that are more than 15 years old, compared to conditions four years ago, Morris told the Airline Economics Growth Frontiers conference on Tuesday.
TWO-YEAR LOG JAM
Until now, most concern has focused on whether regulators would permit an orderly return to service by avoiding gaps in approvals by different countries.
But Morris, who has warned a long up-cycle in aviation is nearly over, said there were also risks in opening floodgates too quickly, overwhelming fragile growth in travel demand.
Still, he and other delegates at back-to-back aviation finance gatherings in Hong Kong agreed it would take Boeing 18 months or longer to deliver all the stranded aircraft.
The operation will be one of the industry’s biggest ever logistical challenges and any glitches or delays could further brake supply.
“Getting all those aircraft, that are currently parked, off the ground could take two years,” John Plueger, chief executive of Air Lease Corp, told Reuters, adding he did not see fundamental changes as a result of the MAX’s return.
“It is not as if all these MAX could be delivered over a one-, two- or three-month period … so it is not an open floodgate and 350 planes all coming onto the market tomorrow,” he said on the sidelines of last week’s Airfinance Journal Asia Pacific conference.
Boeing aims to return the 737 MAX to service in the United States by the end of 2019, after making software changes in the wake of the crashes, which killed 346 people.
Europe’s top regulator said on Monday the airliner is likely to return to service in Europe in the first quarter of 2020.
Analysts say more than 300 MAX aircraft have been produced since March, when commercial flights were banned and deliveries frozen. This could rise to 400 by the time it resumes service.
Boeing is additionally expected to deliver close to 600 jets straight from the production line next year. It has indicated it plans to deliver up to 70 jets a month, equal to a previous record. Of this, analysts say around 20 are expected to be drawn from inventory parked at its factories and the rest newly built.
(Reporting by Tim Hepher and Anshuman Daga in Hong Kong Editing by Matthew Lewis and Clarence Fernandez)
(Reuters) – Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot owner PSA are in talks to combine in a deal that could create a $50 billion (£38.88 billion) automaker, a source familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.
Fiat Chrysler shares rose sharply after news of the talks and ended up more than 7.5% in U.S. trading. The companies and the French government had no comment.
The Wall Street Journal first reported the discussions. PSA’s supervisory board was due to meet on Wednesday to discuss the potential merger, another source close to the matter said.
If a combination of Peugeot and Fiat Chrysler succeeded in overcoming political, financial and governance hurdles, the new enterprise would still face substantial challenges. Global automakers face the prospect of a slowdown in global demand coinciding with the most dramatic technology changes in a century.
Peugeot Chief Executive Carlos Tavares has predicted “ten years of chaos” for global automakers as regulators demand a switch to electric vehicles to reduce emissions linked to climate change.
Investors have speculated for several years that Fiat Chrysler was hunting for a merger partner, encouraged by the rhetoric of the company’s late chief executive, Sergio Marchionne.
In 2015, Marchionne outlined the case for consolidation of the auto industry and tried unsuccessfully to interest General Motors Co in a deal. Fiat Chrysler earlier this year broached a merger with French automaker Renault SA that ultimately collapsed.
Created when Fiat, under Marchionne’s leadership, bought control of Chrysler out of a U.S. government-backed bankruptcy in 2009, Fiat Chrysler has one of the global auto industry’s most profitable franchises in the Jeep sport utility vehicle brand and a money-spinning North American pickup and commercial van operation in Ram. Both would boost Peugeot, which does not sell vehicles in the U.S. market.
Peugeot and Fiat Chrysler could over time share engines and vehicle architectures, reducing capital spending and freeing up cash to invest in electric vehicles and emissions reduction technology required in Europe, China and other global markets.
Fiat Chrysler is under increasing pressure to invest in clean car technology. The company disclosed earlier this month that it faces a $79 million fine for falling short of U.S. fuel efficiency standards. Fiat Chrysler agreed to pay U.S. electric car maker Tesla Inc for credits to help it comply with European emissions standards until 2022.
Evercore analyst Arndt Ellinghorst in a note on Tuesday said a combination of Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot “should ignite more rational industry behavior around allocation of capital and this particular merger makes materially more sense than a potential FCA-Renault merger.”
Peugeot and Fiat Chrysler had discussed a combination earlier this year, before Fiat Chrysler proposed a $35 billion merger with Renault. At that time, Fiat Chrysler said a deal with Renault offered more advantages than a combination with Peugeot.
Fiat Chrysler Chairman John Elkann broke off talks with Renault in June after French government officials intervened and pushed for Renault first to resolve tensions with its Japanese alliance partner, Nissan Motor Co.
Following the collapse of the Renault merger plan, Fiat Chrysler CEO Mike Manley left the door open for talks with would-be partners. But he said the Italian-American automaker could go it alone despite mounting costs to develop electric vehicles and comply with tougher emissions rules in Europe, the United States and China.
Along with Jeep and Ram would come Fiat’s Italian operations, which have struggled in recent years. Fiat’s Mirafiori assembly complex in its home city of Turin has run below 50% capacity, with thousands of workers on temporary layoffs.
Overall, Fiat has 58,000 workers in Italy, where the government has long resisted mass lay-offs by large employers.
Peugeot’s Tavares dismissed the idea of a combination with Fiat Chrysler during a discussion with reporters at the Frankfurt auto show last month. “We don’t need it,” he said when asked whether he was still interested in a deal with Fiat Chrysler.
Tavares has moved aggressively to expand Peugeot, acquiring German auto brand Opel from General Motors Co for $2.6 billion in 2017. Since then, he has overseen a turnaround at Opel.
Fiat Chrysler already has a commercial vehicle partnership with Peugeot.
(Reporting by Dominic Roshan K.L. in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel, Richard Chang and Dan Grebler)
FILE PHOTO: Supercar Hongqi S9 is unveiled next to FAW Group Chairman Xu Liuping at the 2019 Frankfurt Motor Show (IAA) in Frankfurt, Germany. September 10, 2019. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/File Photo
FRANKFURT (Reuters) – Chinese suppliers and manufacturers have stepped up their presence at the Frankfurt auto show, capitalizing on a strong position in electric technologies forced on European carmakers by regulators seeking to curb pollution.
Though the number of exhibitors has fallen to 800 in 2019 from 994 in 2017, Chinese automakers and suppliers now make up the biggest foreign contingent, with 79 companies, up from 73.
Several European and Japanese carmakers including Fiat , Alfa Romeo, Nissan and Toyota have skipped the show as the industry cuts costs.
Europe’s automakers face multibillion-euro investments to develop electric and autonomous cars, forcing them to rely on Chinese companies for key technologies such as lithium ion battery cell production, an area where Asian suppliers dominate.
German firms are striking major deals with Chinese suppliers to help them meet stringent EU anti-pollution rules, which were introduced in the wake of Volkswagen’s 2015 emissions cheating scandal.
“All carmakers face the challenge that they will have to fulfill fleet consumption targets,” Matthias Zentgraf, regional president for Europe at China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology, told Reuters.
Zentgraf said he expected further supply deals to be struck in Europe this year following agreements with BMW and Volkswagen.
Daimler on Wednesday said it had chosen China-backed Farasis Energy to supply battery cells for its Mercedes-Benz electrification push.
Farasis is building a 600 million euro ($663 million) factory in east Germany, close to where Chinese rival CATL is erecting a 1.8 billion euro battery plant.
SVOLT Energy Technology, which was carved out of China’s Great Wall Motor Co, told Reuters it would start building battery cells in Europe at a new 2 billion euro plant in 2023.
TIPPING POINT
Chinese companies are also giving Europe more attention since the United States and China embarked on a global trade war, which has resulted in tariffs.
“We put Europe up in priority,” said Daniel Kirchert, chief executive of Chinese electric car maker Byton.
“We are at a tipping point” for acceptance of electric vehicles in Europe, Kirchert, a former BMW executive, added.
Byton has taken its prototype vehicles on road shows in Europe, and received expressions of interest from 20,000 customers, he said. In electric vehicle hot spots, such as Norway and the Netherlands, “we see a very positive response.”
Byton plans to export vehicles from its factory in Nanjing, to Europe in 2021, Kirchert said, adding that exporting to the United States would be a challenge if Washington and Beijing did not resolve their trade war.
He said Byton still hoped to launch in the United States in 2021, but tariffs would threaten the company’s goal of selling vehicles at a starting price of about $45,000.
“We decided no matter what” Byton will launch in the United States, even at a higher price, he said.
China’s Great Wall Motor may consider building car manufacturing facilities in the European Union once its sales there hit 50,000 units a year, its chairman told Reuters at the show.
German carmakers have been forced to accelerate electrification plans after the EU imposed a 37.5% cut in carbon dioxide emissions between 2021 and 2030 in addition to a 40% cut in emissions between 2007 and 2021.
PSA Group Chief Executive Carlos Tavares used the show to step up criticism of Europe’s aggressive approach toward emissions limits.
“The word dialogue has become meaningless in Europe,” he said, referring to the requirements placed on the auto industry.
“Politicians can decide rules without any discussion with industry,” he told journalists on the sidelines of the show.
Electric cars made up only 1.5% of global sales last year, or 1.26 million of the 86 million passenger vehicles sold, JATO Dynamics said.
If carmakers fail to meet the 2021 targets they could face a combined 33 billion euros in fines, analysts at Evercore ISI have estimated.
They also estimate it will cost the auto industry an aggregate 15.3 billion euros to comply, assuming a 60 euro cost per gram to reduce CO2 emissions for premium carmakers and 40 euros per gram of CO2 reduction for volume manufacturers.
(Writing by Edward Taylor; Editing by Mark Potter)
A woman cleans the prototype of a Chinese car at the IAA Auto Show in Frankfurt, Germany, Monday, Sept. 9, 2019. The IAA officially starts with media days on Tuesday and Wednesday. (AP Photo/Michael Probst)
HONG KONG (Reuters) – Shares in Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd fell nearly 4% in early trade on Thursday following the resignation of its chairman after the market closed on the previous day.
The departure of John Slosar was announced less than three weeks after mounting Chinese regulatory scrutiny led to the shock exit of its chief executive, Rupert Hogg.
Cathay shares had closed 7.2% higher on Wednesday as the Hong Kong market was lifted by reports of the withdrawal of a controversial extradition bill, which was officially announced after the market closed.
Long-serving Swire Pacific Ltd executive Patrick Healy was appointed as Cathay’s new chairman on Wednesday following the resignation of Slosar, who had served in the role since 2014.
“As John would have retired soon anyway it’s not really a huge setback as a business,” an analyst said of Slosar’s departure. “However it’s always awful to see when politics dictate like this.”
The analyst, who was not authorised to speak publicly about personnel changes, said he believed if the political situation in Hong Kong stabilised, the situation at Cathay should as well.
Daiwa Capital Markets analyst Kelvin Lau said the extradition bill’s withdrawal was positive for Cathay, even though protests were not expected to end immediately.
“We expect this to be a turning point where the situation would at least not worsen,” he said in a note to clients, adding that recent personnel changes at the airline should satisfy the requirements of the Chinese regulator and were likely to instill confidence among customers.
China’s aviation regulator last month said crew who engaged in the anti-government protests in Hong Kong posed a threat to safety and should be suspended from staffing flights to the mainland and over its airspace.
(Reporting by Donny Kwok and Jamie Freed, writing by Jamie Freed, editing by Richard Pullin)
Every day, Wall Street analysts upgrade some stocks, downgrade others, and “initiate coverage” on a few more. But do these analysts even know what they’re talking about? Today, we’re taking one high-profile Wall Street pick and putting it under the microscope…
After underperforming the S&P 500 by more than 17 points over the past year, Alaska Air Group (NYSE: ALK) delivered a pleasant surprise to its shareholders last week, outperforming analyst expectations and beating on both earnings and revenue. The $0.17 per share that Alaska earned in fiscal Q1 2019 topped consensus estimates by more than 50% — and the airline even eked out a small sales beat with its $1.88 billion in Q1 revenue.
FILE PHOTO: A Tesla logo is seen at a groundbreaking ceremony of Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory in Shanghai, China January 7, 2019. REUTERS/Aly Song/File Photo
(Reuters) – Tesla Inc shares fell more than 8 percent on Thursday after a bigger-than-expected drop in first-quarter deliveries, led by waning demand for its luxury Model S and X vehicles, added to worries about the electric carmaker’s finances.
At least four Wall Street brokerages cut their price targets on the company’s stock, citing concerns about profitability and revenue after deliveries of the higher-priced luxury cars more than halved compared to the fourth quarter.
RBC analysts called Model S/X deliveries “very disappointing” and estimated the numbers would translate to a more than $1 billion shortfall in revenue compared to previous estimates.
The company had already flagged in February that it expected to post a first-quarter loss as it launched its cheaper $35,000 version of the Model 3 sedan.
In the quarter, Tesla delivered 50,900 Model 3s, the linchpin of its growth strategy, falling short of analysts’ estimates of 58,900, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.
Tesla also pinned the blame for the first-quarter delivery drop to longer transit times, which analysts said could impact cash flow, even though the company claimed it had sufficient cash on hand.
The company said it had delivered only half of the quarter’s numbers by March 21, with 10,600 vehicles still in transit at the end of the quarter. By comparison, only 1,900 vehicles were in transit at the end of the fourth quarter.
Cowen and Co analysts said that the delivery and transit details suggested “cash was likely dangerously low” after Tesla paid off a $920 million convertible bond obligation in cash in the beginning of March.
Still, there were no new downgrades by brokerages on Tesla shares. The company is currently rated “buy” or higher by 12 of the 30 brokerages covering the company, 7 “hold” and 11 “sell” or lower.
The carmaker reaffirmed its forecast to deliver between 360,000 and 400,000 vehicles this year, and said U.S. orders for the new Model 3 outpaced what the company was able to fulfill in the quarter.
Nord LB analyst Frank Schwope called the numbers “more shocking than disappointing” and said there remain doubts whether Tesla could deliver 400,000 cars this year.
Lawyers for Tesla chief Elon Musk will argue on Thursday that he did not violate a fraud settlement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and should not be held in contempt, the latest twist in a high-profile battle between the billionaire and the government.
Musk’s fight with the SEC, to play out in a Manhattan federal court hearing, has raised investor worries that it could lead to restrictions on his activities or even his removal from Tesla, while distracting him at a pivotal point in the company’s expansion.
(Reporting by Vibhuti Sharma in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta)
(Reuters) – Shares in Tesla Inc fell nearly 4 percent on Thursday as Wall Street analysts following up on its fourth-quarter results questioned underlying demand for its crucial Model 3 sedan and the electric car maker’s ability to make inroads in China.
Tesla reported quarterly profit below analysts’ expectations on Wednesday and surprised investors by announcing that Chief Financial Officer Deepak Ahuja, 56, would leave and handover the reins to 34-year-old Zach Kirkhorn, its vice president of finance.
JPMorgan analysts were among those warning that Ahuja’s leaving deprived the company of long automotive industry experience and relative stability in a company which has seen a steady stream of senior staff come and go since 2016.
Analysts were also concerned by Tesla’s indication that it is only making cars for China and Europe right now, and expects a gap of about 10,000 vehicles between production and deliveries due to vehicles in transit at the end of the first quarter.
“This is a strong indication that demand in the U.S. for both the mid-range and long-range Model 3 versions has largely been exhausted, and the company is still working through the estimated ~6.8k of unsold Model 3 inventory,” Cowen analysts said.
Still, the fall in Tesla shares was less than that suggested by initial pricing after Wednesday’s results and also far smaller than some of the swings in one of the past year’s most volatile Wall Street stocks.
The company, which is striving to stabilise production and deliver consistent profit, ended the quarter with $4.3 billion in cash and said it had “sufficient cash on hand” to pay a $920 million convertible bond maturing in March.
Of the 31 brokerages covering Tesla, 10 have a “buy” or higher rating, 10 “hold” and 11 have a “sell” or lower rating and their median price target is 327.50.
Only four changed their price targets on the stock on Thursday, with two raises and two cuts. Wedbush cut its price target by $50 to $390 (297 pounds).
While Tesla is pumping money into a Shanghai factory, which it hopes to bring on line around the end of this year with a target of producing 500,000 vehicles a year, several analysts questioned whether that investment will pay off.
“Tesla serves the purpose of a ‘stalking horse’ to the fast growing domestic Chinese EV industry, but we believe it has limited to zero terminal value in a region where a number of domestic champions should emerge,” Morgan Stanley analysts said.
(Reporting by Sonam Rai and Jasmine I S in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D’Silva)
