In recent years, American Airlines (NASDAQ: AAL) CEO Doug Parker has been one of the most vocal advocates of the idea that industry consolidation has permanently transformed the U.S. airline business. Whereas airlines have historically lost huge sums of money during periodic industry busts, Parker has boasted that American Airlines will never lose money again.

Yet on the surface, management’s optimistic outlook seems to clash with a trajectory of declining profits at American Airlines. If the company is struggling to maintain its profitability in a robust economy, one could reasonably wonder how it would do in an economic downturn. Indeed, American Airlines stock is down 38% year to date, so investors clearly are skeptical.

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Is American Airlines Recession Proof?