Story and image from DHL
Bonn, Germany, March 12, 2025 – DHL and the New York University Stern School of Business released the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 today, providing a comprehensive analysis of the most important trends in global trade. In the face of geopolitical tensions and concerns about widespread tariff increases, the report features data-backed insights, covering nearly 200 countries and territories.
Uncertainty looms over future trade policies following U.S. President Donald Trump’s re-election last year. The DHL Trade Atlas 2025, however, highlights how global trade growth has proven surprisingly resilient in the face of recent disruptions. This pattern is likely to continue even as the U.S. begins a campaign of tariff increases.
Faster trade growth compared to the previous decade
Recent forecasts predict goods trade will grow at a compound annual rate of 3.1% from 2024 to 2029. This roughly aligns with GDP growth and represents modestly faster trade growth compared to the previous decade. Even if the new U.S. administration implements all of its proposed tariff increases and other countries retaliate, global trade is still expected to grow over the next five years – but at a much slower pace.
New leaders in trade growth: India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines
Between 2024 and 2029, four countries are forecast to rank among the top 30 for both speed (growth rate) and scale (absolute amount) of trade growth: India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines. India also stands out as the country with the third largest absolute amount of forecast trade growth (6% of additional global trade), behind China (12%) and the United States (10%). The countries expected to deliver the most absolute trade growth are spread across Asia, Europe, and North America. At the same time, the countries with the fastest projected trade growth also include several in Africa and Latin America.
Click the link to read the full story!-> Global Trade Set for Growth